How old is the Earth?

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How old is the Earth?

About 4.5 billion years old.
46
77%
About 6,000 years old.
4
7%
Could be either of the above, I am not sure.
10
17%
 
Total votes: 60

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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

doubloon wrote:the 4.5B year dating is based on tests of meteorites and nothing "native" to the earth itself and it's all based on theory less than 75 years old.
First of all, the age of a theory has little to do with it's validity. Secondly there are more evidence for the age of the earth than you suggest. If you start reading you'll see evidence of native minerals more than 4B old, and we can also infer a lot of information from the suns current state and our understanding of how the solar system was formed. And I believe lunar rocks have been dated to roughly 4.5B years. The dating of meteorites may be at the core of the age estimate, but there are also huge amount of evidence that fits well with these findings. They may not be conclusive on their own, but the sum of evidence quickly becomes quite compelling. Now, one could argue over if it's 4,5 or 4,6B years or whether it's plus/minus 50 or 500million years, but that's nitpicking in the grand scheme of things. And unless you actually have actual evidence to support another age estimate you're just another kook with a half baked idea.

Now I'm all for a bit of healthy scepticism but rejecting science flat out because it has been wrong before isn't productive.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

So because there are parts in a machine gun from 1986 that means the machine gun is 26 years old?
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by lilfuzzybuny »

doubloon wrote:So because there are parts in a machine gun from 1986 that means the machine gun is 26 years old?

very well ilustraded point.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by ick »

In my short stint I have already observed a lot of evidence of just how full of crap science really can be. From the 70s global cooling claims and environmental scientists demanding that the earth would be out of oil in 30 years.... just for starters. Of course scientific consensus doesn't stand up against 3,000 years of phlogiston, life springs naturally from life, medical science opposing surgeons from washing hands between patients, etc.

The thing is that most science isn't as systematic as, for example, the march of our understanding of calculus.

I am more than a little skeptical when someone places a magical age number on anything other than the milk in my fridge. And I question that.

Not buying the scientific absolutes like that. Just too skeptical, and man is involved. The system is way too susceptible to scientific pride.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by bakerjw »

Something important to note is that our solar system isn't even an early generation system. We're the direct result of supernovae seeding star furnaces that culminated in the accretion disk that became the solar system. Suns like ours will never go nova and even if they did, I don't believe that they can reach high enough temperatures to create the conditions necessary for heavy element fusion to take place. Some of the heavy elements could possibly be created by the super nova process itself, I just haven't been following astrophysics as much as I would like.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

I don't mind skepticism as long as it's productive, nut just being skeptical about everything gets you nowhere. What's wrong with the current age estimate of the earth? Even if it's wrong it's most likely correct enough for us non-scholars, and I can't see any problems with accepting it with the usual provision of it being our current understanding and not the "ultimate truth". The question was whether the earth is 6000 or 4.5billion years old, and in that context there is not even a sliver of doubt that 4,5B is the correct answer. It could be 4 or 5 or even 6B for all I know, but it sure as hell isn't anywhere close to 6000.

Science isn't really about discovering the "ultimate truth" since there is no way to properly confirm it. There's no blueprint to look up, no holy book that holds all the answers. So instead we focus on what's useful and productive. A scientific theory is considered valid as long as it can explain all current observations and make useful predictions that can be tested. It's never considered the ultimate truth but rather a useful tool to explain the world we know and gain more insight. So far the current age estimate seems to fit nicely with known observations and provide a useful framework for both biology, archeology, geology and astrophysics, if this changes so will the age estimate. But simply rejecting the current consensus on principal grounds doesn't provide any new knowledge or insight.

Or to put it bluntly: You don't know s--t about s--t, so shut up and pull up your pants :mrgreen:
If (or rather when) the age estimate changes, you can be damn sure that it's not due to anyone here. We simply don't know s--t about s--t on this issue, so the best we can do is accept the current theory for what it's worth.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by -k- »

dustdevil wrote: I remember being taught in school during the 80's that modern man was on the outside of 25,000 years old. It is accepted in science now that modern humans are over 160,000 years old.
Wasn't this exactly renegades point? Science can get it wrong, science is more fluid than many want to admit. Too many want absolutes but it's really just the best theory we currently have.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

-k- wrote:
dustdevil wrote: I remember being taught in school during the 80's that modern man was on the outside of 25,000 years old. It is accepted in science now that modern humans are over 160,000 years old.
Wasn't this exactly renegades point? Science can get it wrong, science is more fluid than many want to admit. Too many want absolutes but it's really just the best theory we currently have.
That's the gist of it.

Personally I don't believe in a 6,000 year old earth but it doesn't bother me one whit if someone wants to believe the earth is 6,000 years old or 9,000 years old or even if they want to believe it's flat. From my perspective, people believe in stranger things than a flat earth.

As far as the 1B, 3B or 4.5B age estimates go I see them all having aobut the same chance of being right or wrong but I think it's funny when people get their panties in a wad over theories they can't possibly prove being challenged.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

doubloon wrote:As far as the 1B, 3B or 4.5B age estimates go I see them all having aobut the same chance of being right or wrong
I would guess that's because you don't have a clue what you're talking about. If you took the time to study the science behind you'd probably be much more willing to accept them as reasonable estimates. I'm not saying I understand every evidence or method used to get them, but I've seen enough to understand that the work that's being done is far more than simple guesswork.
but I think it's funny when people get their panties in a wad over theories they can't possibly prove being challenged.
I get my panties in a wad when people who know nothing about a subject tries to lecture me on it and flaunts ignorance disguised as skepticism. There are already strong evidence for the age of the earth, and while nothing can ever be proven 100% the evidence is quite compelling. If you were to challenge this with actual evidence, fine, but you're not. You're not challenging this theory, you're just arguing from a place of ignorance.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

I understand today's widely accepted age estimates are based on test results for the oldest thing we think we've found connected to the earth so far but as soon as somebody finds a rock that's 5B or 6B years old everyone will flock like lemmings to the new date.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

doubloon wrote:I understand today's widely accepted age estimates are based on test results for the oldest thing we think we've found connected to the earth
No, it is far more complex than that. Terrestrial rock, meteors, lunar rock, even the suns age have been determined and all points to the same age. This age also seems to fit well with the physical processes that formed the solar system. So it's not just one or one type of measurement but a whole range that agrees.

Now it is possible that we will learn new things that changes our understanding of how and when the earth was formed, but that's not the same as saying it's all a guess since you don't understand the methods used. You simply don't have anything to back your claim.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Bone16 »

Fulmen wrote:That's just nitpicking, there will always be ignorant people. The point is that any person with any knowledge of the subject and most without it would have known the earth was round.
The earth isn't round, it's an oblate spheroid:

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/round

1a (1) : having every part of the surface or circumference equidistant from the center.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth

http://geography.about.com/od/physicalg ... thsize.htm

Earth's circumference and diameter differ because its shape is classified as an oblate spheroid or ellipsoid, instead of a true sphere. This means that instead of being of equal circumference in all areas, the poles are squished, resulting in a bulge at the equator, and thus a larger circumference and diameter there.

It's also one of the reasons printed maps are inherently inaccurate in depicting the surface.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

Now there's a man who knows how to pick a nit.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

LOL.

I hope I haven't come across as overly abrasive in this thread, but it is a matter I care deeply about. This sort of "unguided" skepticism is really annoying and potentially damaging as it murks the waters without providing anything useful in return.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

I don't think so but thanks for helping me grant MV10s wish from so long ago in this thread.
MV10 wrote:Well are we going to fight about this or not? :D
doubloon wrote:OK, I'll start.

The earth is 9000 years old, dinosaurs were created by fallen angels, carbon dating is bunk and you're all stupid. :mrgreen:
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

Yeah, we did get a decent fight going here. Sometimes it feels good to blow off some steam.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by GoJohnnyGo »

I stopped responding to this thread quite a while ago because I don't like to discuss science with people who aren't scientists. Fulman, I think that you and I are on the same page and I agree with your input to this thread. Well said!
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Libertarian_Geek »

Yeah, I've gotta side with Fulmen over Doubloon on this one too.

For what it's worth, I don't think anyone in this discussion was overly abrasive. Some "social norms" tend to mistake being blunt and direct as abrasive, but I consider it efficient communication considering the medium.

Just like architecture can build a structure that relies on a single unstable point, science in a particular area can be built on it too. (see studies about sodium intake as it relates to heart attacks).

With that said, the science around dating the earth is built on many diverse firm structures and underpinnings. It would take a very serious and sizable set of alternative theories to offer enough evidence to move the dates any significant amount.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

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Fulmen wrote:Yeah, we did get a decent fight going here. Sometimes it feels good to blow off some steam.
Just trying to fulfill MV's wish for a fight. Personally I currently accept the 4.5B estimate but, like renegade, I take it with a grain of salt. I'm not willing to get myself tied in a knot over it. :)

Much of what passed for "science" 100 years ago is blown away if not outrightly discredited by today's science and I'm pretty sure the same will hold true 100 years from now. The 4.5B estimate may hold up for 100 years or it could be adjusted next month.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

What I have a problem with is the attitude that since we don't know everything with absolute certainty we don't know anything with any certainty. In the last 100 years we have seen a veritable explosion of knowledge that has transformed our understanding of the world completely, and while we may learn that we didn't have the whole picture little of what we know today (at least in the realm of physics) will be completely obsolete in the future.

Take Newtons laws of motion, a revolution of almost unparalleled scale in physics. Today Einsteins general relativity have replaced it, and showed that many of Newtons assumptions about space and time were wrong. Yet we still use Newtons laws today, because it works very well within it's limitations. And while we already know that Einstein didn't have the whole answer, there is no doubt about the validity of general relativity. You're sitting right in front of the proof, modern computers wouldn't work if it was wrong. In the future we will learn more about the limitations of that theory and hopefully develop new theories that go beyond that, but it will still apply within those limits.

The trick is to look past the question of "right" and "wrong" and focus on what's useful. The question isn't whether general relativity is right or wrong but whether it is useful. We already know it must be wrong in the sense that it's not the absolute truth, but it is still a remarkably useful tool that opened up a whole new field in science we didn't know existed before. Same with quantum theory, Maxwells equations and all the other tools of modern science. They are not the absolute truth, but they are too well confirmed to be wrong.

I wish scientists were better at conveying this, they often come off as too damn certain. Sometimes they are, but most of the time they just accept the current knowledge as the best available tool and use it for what it's worth. They understand this, perhaps so intuitively that they forget to explain it.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by -k- »

Fulmen wrote: I wish scientists were better at conveying this, they often come off as too damn certain. Sometimes they are, but most of the time they just accept the current knowledge as the best available tool and use it for what it's worth. They understand this, perhaps so intuitively that they forget to explain it.
Excellent point, now add in a good dose of pride/elitism some have and you can see why non scientists are often suspicious of claims that seem too absolute.

There is big difference between saying the Earth is 6,000 years old and pointing out that 4.5B is the current estimate based on what we know, not an absolute truth. The second shouldn't offend, unless they are as emotionally attached to the answer as believers of the first one.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by doubloon »

-k- wrote:...
There is big difference between saying the Earth is 6,000 years old and pointing out that 4.5B is the current estimate based on what we know, not an absolute truth. The second shouldn't offend, unless they are as emotionally attached to the answer as believers of the first one.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

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Fulmen wrote:What I have a problem with is the attitude that since we don't know everything with absolute certainty we don't know anything with any certainty. In the last 100 years we have seen a veritable explosion of knowledge that has transformed our understanding of the world completely, and while we may learn that we didn't have the whole picture little of what we know today (at least in the realm of physics) will be completely obsolete in the future.

Take Newtons laws of motion, a revolution of almost unparalleled scale in physics. Today Einsteins general relativity have replaced it, and showed that many of Newtons assumptions about space and time were wrong. Yet we still use Newtons laws today, because it works very well within it's limitations. And while we already know that Einstein didn't have the whole answer, there is no doubt about the validity of general relativity. You're sitting right in front of the proof, modern computers wouldn't work if it was wrong. In the future we will learn more about the limitations of that theory and hopefully develop new theories that go beyond that, but it will still apply within those limits.

The trick is to look past the question of "right" and "wrong" and focus on what's useful. The question isn't whether general relativity is right or wrong but whether it is useful. We already know it must be wrong in the sense that it's not the absolute truth, but it is still a remarkably useful tool that opened up a whole new field in science we didn't know existed before. Same with quantum theory, Maxwells equations and all the other tools of modern science. They are not the absolute truth, but they are too well confirmed to be wrong.

I wish scientists were better at conveying this, they often come off as too damn certain. Sometimes they are, but most of the time they just accept the current knowledge as the best available tool and use it for what it's worth. They understand this, perhaps so intuitively that they forget to explain it.
Science is indeed a discipline based on provisional knowledge. Being as such, nothing is ever really outside of the possibility of being revised/refuted/etc. I believe that actual scientists understand this best, and because its a given, they don't usually make it a point to bring it up every time they discover something new. It's needless to say....to them, but not necessarily the public though. The problem comes when armchair scientists take what scientists have discovered and run with it, almost as if they don't quite grasp the notion that nothing in science is ever set in stone. Ever.

Science doesn't hold onto specific beliefs, people do. The discipline of science has no agenda, has no emotional attachment to any theories -- it simply follows the evidence regardless of what that evidence might suggest. For example, if at some point in the future legitimate scientific evidence is found that God does exist, science will support that theory even though many scientists themselves may not. The point is that science and scientists are not one and the same thing...often times people forget that.
Fulmen wrote:What I have a problem with is the attitude that since we don't know everything with absolute certainty we don't know anything with any certainty.
I definitely understand what you are saying, but the philosopher in me is itching to point something out. When I use the word "knowledge" outside of informal conversations, I mean something very specific, i.e. "Verified" "True" "Belief" (a modification of the JTB theory of truth to reconcile the Gettier Problem). A belief that holds a true conclusion, but has not been properly verified, is not knowledge. It is still true mind you, but not knowledge. The reason why I make this distinction is because someone can make accurate predictions based on a belief that is true, without actually knowing why its true...and can you really know something to be true without knowing why?

I'd say no, at least not with the definition of "knowledge" I am using. If we are using a definition that allows of someone to "know" things that are uncertain to them..then yes, we know many things. Otherwise, we simply have many true assumptions and very few actual pieces of knowledge.

Of course, understand that I am very much a man of science. I have very strong faith in the scientific method, and honestly do trust in the findings of the scientific community. With that being said, I also have a very clear understanding of why I do...and its not because I "know" those principles to be true. I do not. Like most, I can see the effects of science in my everyday life (technology, medicine, etc), I've read many pieces of literature and thus understand the logic behind a number of scientific principles, and I have even done a few basic of experiments myself -- but none of that actually justifies the extent in which I trust science. And I understand that. That's the difference -- I understand that I don't ultimately know what I believe is true.
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Kramer »

Great sciencey stuff on this thread. :D
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Re: How old is the Earth?

Post by Fulmen »

Munk wrote:Science is indeed a discipline based on provisional knowledge. Being as such, nothing is ever really outside of the possibility of being revised/refuted/etc.
Yes and no. Theories and estimates may change, but not the observations. Sure some observations or measurements will turn out to be wrong, but the bulk of them are correct and will not change over time. The interpretations however are always "in play".
Many terms have a slightly different meaning in science. A scientific theory is far more than "just a theory", it's a model that can accurately describe the way nature works. It's an hypothesis that have been verified by observations to the point where there is little doubt of it's correctness, although it may turn out to be just a special case of a more fundamental "law".
The term law is also misleading, as laws are something WE define and can break if we want to. The laws of nature are not the models we use to describe them but the nature of nature, the unchanging and unbreakable way of the universe. These are forever hidden from us, we can never know them for sure. All we can do is build better and better, yet fundamentally flawed models in an attempt to understand the world around us.
Science doesn't hold onto specific beliefs, people do.
This is an excellent point, all too often science gets the blame for the the human limitations of scientists.
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