Supressorgedon 41F
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- CanOfWhooppass
- Silent But Deadly
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- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:03 pm
- Location: South Florida
Supressorgedon 41F
I've noticed inventories are starting to come back some and woundering why.
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
41F forced me to buy a bt earlier than I intended. Waiting on form 3 & 4 now.
"a butt tuba" - Palindrome
- Michael Black 47
- Silent But Deadly
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I have one more SBR to submit, but I have to wait until the repairs on the lower seat to get back to do the form 1. But after that it would just be getting the parts and accessories for all of my toys. After all this NFA stuff I can go back to regular purchases of firearm parts
Also if anyone missed out. Silencer Co. has a 25% accessories and merchandise sale all that to Father's Day and stock is only fast. So I advise you to go there and get some. For me I look at the emails and read them so I got a 3 lug adapter for my Omega 9K for $105.
Also if anyone missed out. Silencer Co. has a 25% accessories and merchandise sale all that to Father's Day and stock is only fast. So I advise you to go there and get some. For me I look at the emails and read them so I got a 3 lug adapter for my Omega 9K for $105.
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
Got everything I need and more until some new products come out (YHM Nitro & Dead Air AK can)
It is not the Death Rattle in the throat of Western civilization which is surprising: it is the fact that millions of Americans believe that the death rattle is a beautiful song!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I grabbed an AAC 556-SD in April. Now I play the waiting game. Maybe I'll get it as a Christmas present.
-Bob
-Bob
- CanOfWhooppass
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I'm curios how long the waits will get, a year would not shock me for the June purchases. I've been watching the trend graph over at NFA Tracker and it's taking off. Considering it's mostly reflecting suppressors purchased from December and SBR'S from Jan it's depressing to think about.ryanr256 wrote:I grabbed an AAC 556-SD in April. Now I play the waiting game. Maybe I'll get it as a Christmas present.
-Bob
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
The only thing keeping me going with the anticipated wait is that my local NFA dealer is also an
indoor range. Going to conjugal the crap out of my stuff.
indoor range. Going to conjugal the crap out of my stuff.
"a butt tuba" - Palindrome
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
Silencershop is reporting they are receiving approvals for Form 4 trusts that were submitted in Sept. of last year. So yeah, I'm prepared for a long wait.CanOfWhooppass wrote:I'm curios how long the waits will get, a year would not shock me for the June purchases. I've been watching the trend graph over at NFA Tracker and it's taking off. Considering it's mostly reflecting suppressors purchased from December and SBR'S from Jan it's depressing to think about.ryanr256 wrote:I grabbed an AAC 556-SD in April. Now I play the waiting game. Maybe I'll get it as a Christmas present.
-Bob
-Bob
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
Those dates at Silencer Shop also have these disclaimers:
** Approval dates shown in RED were received more than 7 days ago
Please Note: Current dates for "Paper TRUST Form 4" are outliers. Please bear with us as we correct this data.
Hopefully that means that their approvals are not really taking that long as I have purchased (3) from them since February.
** Approval dates shown in RED were received more than 7 days ago
Please Note: Current dates for "Paper TRUST Form 4" are outliers. Please bear with us as we correct this data.
Hopefully that means that their approvals are not really taking that long as I have purchased (3) from them since February.
- CanOfWhooppass
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I got a can front SS, purchased 12/14, cashed 1/5, stamp in hand 5/24. That sight has had bogus data for some time now. Don't think it's a priority for them of late.
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I agree. Per NFATracker, there is an 84% chance I'll have a stamp for my February purchase by the end of August. It will be interesting to see how (in)accurate their predictions end up.
- CanOfWhooppass
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I run the bussiness forecasting for my company. Yea, that nerdy.JC in SC wrote:I agree. Per NFATracker, there is an 84% chance I'll have a stamp for my February purchase by the end of August. It will be interesting to see how (in)accurate their predictions end up.
Tracker is not forecasting with any kind of predictive model as far as I can tell. It just says the average wait over the past time frame was x so we expect you to be approved in x from when you started.
Unless the ATF has added resources equal to added demand, waits will trend up exponetionaly. It's unlikely they would add resources because this is a short term problem. Training new people significantly slows down the productive people and when it's over they would be over staffed.
What I'm watching most is how many dots are on that graph, it will be intresting to see if the total number of dots per month stays about the same.
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I suspect you're right in anticipating an uptick or trending up in both applications and wait times over the next few months.
With trusts, I expect an even keel or a slight drop, while individual applications will increase ever so slightly between now and
next January.
My intent is to trust buy one more suppressor retail, then submit for two more form 1 sbr's and one form 1 suppressor before the year is
up as banked stamps.
With trusts, I expect an even keel or a slight drop, while individual applications will increase ever so slightly between now and
next January.
My intent is to trust buy one more suppressor retail, then submit for two more form 1 sbr's and one form 1 suppressor before the year is
up as banked stamps.
"a butt tuba" - Palindrome
- CanOfWhooppass
- Silent But Deadly
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- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:03 pm
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
OK, so here is me getting a little nerdy. I downloaded NFA Tracker and pulled a count of lines by month with populated purchase dates. The recent months probably under report as people will still be entering purchases for months to come. But assuming it's a decent representation they have been clearing 300-400 stamps a month. The stamps that just issued were mostly December so the trend just started. A month from now they will be about 500 stamps behind, in 3 months it will be about 850 stamps behind or 3 more months worth. Lots of variables.
2016. 05. 353
2016 04. 457
2016. 03. 490
2016. 02. 655
2016. 01. 794
2015. 12. 527
2015. 11. 335
2015. 10. 357
2015. 09. 334
2015. 08. 385
2015. 07. 376
2015. 06. 330
2015. 05. 359
2015. 04. 413
2015. 03. 475
2015. 02. 486
2015. 01. 391
2016. 05. 353
2016 04. 457
2016. 03. 490
2016. 02. 655
2016. 01. 794
2015. 12. 527
2015. 11. 335
2015. 10. 357
2015. 09. 334
2015. 08. 385
2015. 07. 376
2015. 06. 330
2015. 05. 359
2015. 04. 413
2015. 03. 475
2015. 02. 486
2015. 01. 391
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I may or may not get another suppressor and a form 1 SBR submitted before the deadline but I'm coming to peace with the fact that it's not that big of a deal, so I have to get fingerprints and background checks for two people, big whoop. And there's always the possibility if Trump wins that the Hearing Protection Act will get passed. It's a long shot but possible.
The hot suppressors are flying off the shelves. The Obsidian 45 sold out at SS in a few hours in end of April. It took three days this last week.
The hot suppressors are flying off the shelves. The Obsidian 45 sold out at SS in a few hours in end of April. It took three days this last week.
- Michael Black 47
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I just want all of my new toys by the end of the year if not possible the beginning of fall. I have plans to travel so want to make sure that was taken care of and in place. I hope everyone knows that silencer Co. is having a 25% off on all their accessories and merchandise so take a look into it and see for some of the cheap that you have a hard time finding.
I just have one SBR to finish and that is my 308 SBR AR. It's going to be a blast
I just have one SBR to finish and that is my 308 SBR AR. It's going to be a blast
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I never used a trust. Which probably means that later this year would be a good time to buy something.
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I don't understand why the Silencer Shop wait time data is inaccurate or there is a problem.
Last week, for a few days, SS was showing dates of Dec '15 then it went back several months again.
Last week, for a few days, SS was showing dates of Dec '15 then it went back several months again.
- CanOfWhooppass
- Silent But Deadly
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
Just guessing but I think their system is constantly slammed with Internet activity. When a system is being pushed things that used to work can break. I'm guessing that calculation runs at most once per day. It probably needs a download of data to calculate, but if the download times out or fails it calculates with partial data or none.tf2addict wrote:I don't understand why the Silencer Shop wait time data is inaccurate or there is a problem.
Last week, for a few days, SS was showing dates of Dec '15 then it went back several months again.
It's not a silencer, it's a can of whoopass!
Re: Supressorgedon 41F
I'm wanting a 10.5 inch Noveske rife but can't find one in Miuchigan... Deep sigh! Sure, I can build one (already have) but I need a factory one.
- Michael Black 47
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Re: Supressorgedon 41F
you might have to go online and order it. this what ive ended up doing for a awhile now. My dealer don't mind if he doesn't have it in stock.