Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

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DaveJTR
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Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by DaveJTR »

We will get our $200 in tax stamp(s) back. What will happen to prices of suppressors? Stay the same? Go way up?
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by doubloon »

Manufacturing and material costs are dependent on demand, not the tax stamp.

If demand picks up prices may drop for some models as the cost of sourcing materials goes down for some of the bigger outfits but people still need to make a living off selling them so the price can only go so low.

If demand on products from some of the medium volume outfits skyrockets the price will likely go up for those products.

Custom is custom, it will always be smaller batches and more expensive and some people will pay bigger money for 1dB quieter and 0.2 Oz lighter just because it makes them feel good to be able to pay for what other people can't afford. Ferrari vs Corvette.

The lower end of the price spectrum will be glutted with cheap, poor performing crapware so paying extra for something that works and is dependable will be worth it to some people. The difference between a KelTec and a Kimber.

If FTF sales are approved they will increase geometrically for a short time when people who have been collecting NFA for a while realize they can convert less favorable inventory into cash they can spend on something they want more, like hookers and blow.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by poikilotrm »

Economies of scale and widened markets combined with healthy market competition spell lower prices. If the HPA passes, things will be better for us.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by tf2addict »

This better happen. If it doesn't happen in 2017 it never will.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by gunham »

The cost for dealers will go down because they don't have to hold it in a safe for 6 months and the cost for the manufacturers will go down because there will be less paperwork. :D
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by TROOPER »

DaveJTR wrote: We will get our $200 in tax stamp(s) back. What will happen to prices of suppressors? Stay the same? Go way up?
The part in red... it's a statement and not a question? Why do you say this? Do you have an article or source that you're willing to share?

As for the other portions, I don't see why prices would change significantly... and if they did, it would likely be a sharp but temporary uptick in prices as public demand would temporarily outstrip supply.

But prices going down? Probably not any huge amount. Sure, there's less hassle, paperwork, and ware-housing of finished product... but the cost of raw materials, machine-time, and man-time wouldn't be changed. The true benefit may come a year or so later as more people get into the niche market of silencer manufacturing... but I don't think it will produce a sharp decline in prices.

The benefit to us will be an obvious ease-of-purchase and no more tax stamp. The downside is that we'll be kids in a candy-shop, and we'll all end up buying $75 Lauer-Custom-Weaponry "washer-baffles-in-a-PVC-pipe".

There will be a glut of "Cheaper Than Dirt!" crappy silencers next to the flash-hiders built by NcStar that won't do much to silence a shot. I kind of look forward to that from a general amusement point of view.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by fishman »

TROOPER wrote:
DaveJTR wrote: We will get our $200 in tax stamp(s) back. What will happen to prices of suppressors? Stay the same? Go way up?
The part in red... it's a statement and not a question? Why do you say this? Do you have an article or source that you're willing to share?

As for the other portions, I don't see why prices would change significantly... and if they did, it would likely be a sharp but temporary uptick in prices as public demand would temporarily outstrip supply.

But prices going down? Probably not any huge amount. Sure, there's less hassle, paperwork, and ware-housing of finished product... but the cost of raw materials, machine-time, and man-time wouldn't be changed. The true benefit may come a year or so later as more people get into the niche market of silencer manufacturing... but I don't think it will produce a sharp decline in prices.

The benefit to us will be an obvious ease-of-purchase and no more tax stamp. The downside is that we'll be kids in a candy-shop, and we'll all end up buying $75 Lauer-Custom-Weaponry "washer-baffles-in-a-PVC-pipe".

There will be a glut of "Cheaper Than Dirt!" crappy silencers next to the flash-hiders built by NcStar that won't do much to silence a shot. I kind of look forward to that from a general amusement point of view.
Read the bill, everyone who bought or made a silencer since 2015 gets a refund. I would expect a short term spike in prices as demand soars while supply needs to catch up. Long term prices should be lower thanks to economy of scale
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by TROOPER »

I personally don't care for retro-active bills like that. However, that's a different topic.

Why do you think economies of scale would come into play on this? As I understand it, the higher-end suppressors have their dominant costs in materials, machine time, and expert man-hours. Of those, only raw-materials have the potential to come down, but I don't think it will be enough to matter. Sure, compliance and ware-housing of finished product is a hassle and corresponding cost, but I think the true expenses come from CNC machine and time, and those won't go down as a result of this.

I do believe the market will be quickly saturated with wire-mesh/flat-washer crap, and if you average that type of mass-produced, cheap and relatively ineffective silencers in with the high-end Omega and K-Baffle stack units, then yes... the average price will come down. But the cost of Inconnel K-baffle stack silencers produced with very fine tolerances.... no, those likely won't come down any meaningful amount since the dominant costs associated with their manufacture won't be affected by this bill.

Hope the bill passes.
Hope it passes such that some people do get refunds.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by poikilotrm »

The .22 can I bought OTC in St. Martin in 1995 cost me about $30 US. It was every bit as quiet as my Sparrow.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by cdrissel »

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-con ... /3799/text

I don't see anything in the text of the bill about a refund.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by fishman »

TROOPER wrote:I personally don't care for retro-active bills like that. However, that's a different topic.

Why do you think economies of scale would come into play on this? As I understand it, the higher-end suppressors have their dominant costs in materials, machine time, and expert man-hours. Of those, only raw-materials have the potential to come down, but I don't think it will be enough to matter. Sure, compliance and ware-housing of finished product is a hassle and corresponding cost, but I think the true expenses come from CNC machine and time, and those won't go down as a result of this.
Cost of machining will very minimally come down, yes. However, while the marginal cost stays the same, in increase in sales will allow companies to still make a profit with decreased profit margins. marginal cost to manufacture each unit stays the same, but overall cost of each unit goes down. The more manufactures there are in the game and the more silencers each manufacturer sells, the more silencers move from being a highly specialty product to being more of a commodity product. Specialty products need high profit margins to keep a company afloat, while commodities need to be sold on low margin to stay competitive. Econ 101
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by TROOPER »

fishman wrote:
TROOPER wrote:I personally don't care for retro-active bills like that. However, that's a different topic.

Why do you think economies of scale would come into play on this? As I understand it, the higher-end suppressors have their dominant costs in materials, machine time, and expert man-hours. Of those, only raw-materials have the potential to come down, but I don't think it will be enough to matter. Sure, compliance and ware-housing of finished product is a hassle and corresponding cost, but I think the true expenses come from CNC machine and time, and those won't go down as a result of this.
Cost of machining will very minimally come down, yes. However, while the marginal cost stays the same, in increase in sales will allow companies to still make a profit with decreased profit margins. marginal cost to manufacture each unit stays the same, but overall cost of each unit goes down. The more manufactures there are in the game and the more silencers each manufacturer sells, the more silencers move from being a highly specialty product to being more of a commodity product. Specialty products need high profit margins to keep a company afloat, while commodities need to be sold on low margin to stay competitive. Econ 101
Why would cost of machining come down? If anything, the growing industry will be competing for a currently limited pool of CNC operators.

We agree that drawing off a larger buying market has the possibility to sell more units even if the profit for unit is reduced. However, companies like AAC which seem to focus on precision-cut Inconel K-baffles may not particularly benefit since the influx of new buyers will be uneducated and easily swayed to low-end ".25-inch washers in a flashlight tube" style suppressors sold next to NcStar flash-hiders in a "Cheaper Than Dirt!" catalog.

This bill reduces costs associated with regulation compliance, which I speculate is not even close to being a significant portion of unit costs. It does nothing to lower the cost of Inconel, or CNC machines, or creating more qualified CNC operators. If anything, the growth of this manufacturing field may temporarily outpace the supply of one or more of those three things, and that would raise costs.

As far as "speciality products high margins commodities....." you're assuming that new buyers both understand the difference between a top-tier k-baffle arrangement versus a Home Depot quarter-inch flat washer AND are willing to pay for that difference in performance. It's already tough to get the consumer to understand the difference now, and that $200 tax stamp is working as an unavoidable fixed-cost which helps to keep the price ratio of top-tier to bottom-rung product artificially low.

IE, $200 (tax) + $200 (silencer) = $400 bottom rung.... vs.... $200 (tax) + $600 (silencer) = $800 top-tier. It's twice as expensive to get the best. But without the tax stamp artificially keeping that ratio low, it becomes $200 vs $600.... suddenly it's three times more expensive to buy the best, but it certainly isn't suddenly three times better.

And now I'm dying to end this with some kind of a snarky comment about "Econ 4201", because your post ended with unnecessary condescension, and I want to repay the insult. You're educated? Good for you. Don't assume the person you're talking to isn't.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by fishman »

I meant you no offense, I apologize if it came across that way.

but the bottom line is, current quality manufacturers sales will only go up, even if they only acquire a fraction of the new sales due to cheap silencers flooding the market. I do agree that until production ramps up, the sudden increase I demand will raise prices temporarily, like I said previously. but in the long term, quality manufacturers will be selling more units, they'll be able to afford selling at smaller profit margins. Competition should keep prices lower than they're at right now. Maybe not by a lot, but by some amount
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by DaveJTR »

I got the part about $200 in tax stamp(s) back from here: https://www.google.com/amp/www.ammoland ... ent=safari

Fight the noise!!! :)
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by JoeLiberty »

I'd anticipate this causing the price (and quality) of the 'average' suppressor to drop like a stone. Manufacturers and buyers have less legal hurdles and less time waiting around. So a can would not have to have the features we are used to. User-serviceable, extreme materials, extreme strength, great quality control, great customer service, etc... Any dummy with a lathe can whip up a few baffles and shove 'em in a tube. If it wears out, it wears out.. If it fills up with lead or goes flying downrange, oh well. If it costs less than $100 and you can buy it at the gun store same day it's not a huge loss. When I buy a can today that's like a lifetime purchase. It had better hold up to drops and endless range trips. I expect something I can pass on to my grandchildren.

But the cost of a given suppressor, like say an AAC M4-2000, will not change much, materials will be about the same cost, machining around the same, etc. Demand might go up for some given models. If you want a can with all those features, it may still be available. but the lower end of the suppressor market is going to go absolutely bananas. Unfortunately, I see big companies like Remington letting the QC slide to compete. This will probably be pretty bad for suppressor quality. But maybe that's OK.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by Todd Is »

I imagine if they were to go mainstream, it would pretty much be like any other commodity. Take for instance, a flashlight. 2 or 3 dollars for a cheapo vs 25 or so for a Mag Lite. They both generally work well as intended. Of course the Mag is built to higher spec, and in all probability, will last a lot longer.

You get what you pay for would still be the golden rule.

And the other possibilities is that gun mfg's could jump on the bandwagon too and make some really cool products. I.e, Ruger could simply have a line of integrally suppressed rimfires that could be sold at your local Academy.

Or Green Mountain could make integral drop ins. The list could go on..................

I'm a dreamer, ok :D
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

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I think within a few years they would be made as quick and as cheap as an oil filter or law mower muffler, hopefully for the same price. They would be disposable and need to be for the general consumer. When the cans get damaged, we we throw them on top of the used paper targets in the trash can at the range.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by doubloon »

strobro32 wrote:I think within a few years they would be made as quick and as cheap as an oil filter or law mower muffler, hopefully for the same price. They would be disposable and need to be for the general consumer. When the cans get damaged, we we throw them on top of the used paper targets in the trash can at the range.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by Fulmen »

I would expect more lightweight cans made for hunting with prices in the 2-300$ range. If you look to Europe this is what you'll find most of, not inconel cans rated for full auto.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by poikilotrm »

Right now all the cans are Bently quality, because silencers are an odd item purchased by few, and so they have to be top quality to sell. Nobody wants to spend ridiculous money and wait months for a POS.

If the market opens, we will see silencers that range from Bently to Ford Pinto. Choice is good. Cheap crappy cans will be good for people who are poor. Poor people deserve to keep their hearing too.

Wilson makes a nice pistol. Hi Point does not. Both have their market niche. Neither company is discomfited by the other.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by Kramer »

poikilotrm wrote: Cheap crappy cans will be good for people who are poor. Poor people deserve to keep their hearing too.

Are you serious? Do you think that poor people are going to buy a $50-100 can when they can buy cheap ear plugs for fifty cents or a set of hearing protectors for five bucks?
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by Fulmen »

You don't have to be poor to not want to spent 500$ or more on a silencer. I'm guessing the tax and red tape is enough to turn most potential buyers off. If those obstacles are removed the marked will explode. I suspect there will be a lot of people who are more than willing to pay 200$ for a lightweight can they can use until it's worn out and then simply toss it.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by poikilotrm »

Kramer wrote:
Are you serious? Do you think that poor people are going to buy a $50-100 can when they can buy cheap ear plugs for fifty cents or a set of hearing protectors for five bucks?
Absolutely. The cool factor alone will make them sell.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by doubloon »

Depends on your definition of poor. There's a difference between poor and cheap and then there's the less then adult market.

One of the gating factors for "poor" people is the lack of threaded barrels or barrels with front sights and barrels too thin to thread with a 1/2x28 die from Sears & Roebuck. The bulk of the "existing market" everyone is talking about expanding into doesn't own a suppressor ready weapon.

If we define "poor" people as cheapskates then Kramer is probably right because no one has yet eliminated the barrel tax ... the $100-$300+ to either thread, extend and thread or replace your non-threaded barrel. Don't lose sight of the fact that the cost of the suppressor is not the sole price of entry into this hobby.

If we define "poor" people as hard working blue collar hunting enthusiasts then Fulmen probably has an eye on the market that will likely be dominated by sales for rifles as long as somebody can figure out how to to attach one to the most popular hunting barrel contour in a way that won't sacrifice accuracy/precision or require the hunter to chop 8" off the end of his barrel to get enough meat for threads. And of these people who own handguns, most of the ones I know in this category own a popular caliber revolver (.22, .38, .357, .44) and the ones with semi-autos don't already have threaded barrels, see barrel tax above. I believe suppressors in the $50-$100 range that solve the barrel tax problem would sell like hot cakes at every Buc-ee's, Academy, Bass Pro and Gander Mountain across the country but I think a quality rig that solves the barrel tax issue won't cost $50-$100.

If we define "poor" people as children of middle class then they will most likely be using mostly empty soda bottles duct taped to the end of their rifles, shotguns or revolvers. "Poor" people in this category who happen to have something with a threaded barrel (probably self threaded) will likely be using some kind of $1.50 fitting to attach oil filters (maybe new ones, likely used ones) and soda bottles or whatever else will fit and shoot the crap out of it until the whole rig flies down range or becomes permanently fused to the end of the barrel.
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Re: Price of suppressors IF Hearing Protection Act is passed

Post by Fulmen »

Once the silencers go down in price, so will barrel threading. It's not rocket science, nor does it require a gunsmith with 10 years of experience. But if you risk destroying a 500$ can and force the customer to wait 6months for a new you gotta be 100% sure. If it's just a matter of re-threading the barrel and give the customer a new 200$ can more people will do this, and for a lot less than you pay now.
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