accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

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Deja vu
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accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Deja vu » Sun Nov 25, 2012 3:34 pm

I was reading a thread on another forum and this came up.

I figured you guys where the best people I could find to get a correct answer. How accurate is the time on the nfatracker.com ? According to that I am having bad luck and 91% of people that went pending the same day as me would have there suppressor by now. A call to the NFA only got me a pending date and not much else.

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smilner01
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by smilner01 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 3:50 pm

according to NFA tracker, I should have gotten my stamp 3 weeks sooner. However, they average everyone, and some examiners are faster/slower than others, have more territory, etc., etc... I think it gives a window, but with limited data, the output is limited as well. Some states get stamps faster than others on average. I saw somewhere that less than 10% of info winds up on that web site, and it is user entered (potential to be inaccurate), still, I checked it every day sometimes twice a day for my 5.5 months...gives us something to do besides buy more hosts and have more barrels threaded :lol:

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eastern_hunter
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by eastern_hunter » Sun Nov 25, 2012 4:43 pm

Because it relies on statistics within a relatively small percentage of transfers (those entered into its data base by end users) and it is rearward looking rather than predicting future trends in approval times ... it's really only good as a guide to when one might hope to get ones paperwork back.

Not really good, but it is the best we have.

Captains1911
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Captains1911 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:10 pm

It says that 99% of people would have received their stamp by now. I'm currently at 5.5 months since check cashed.

Trevor2011
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Trevor2011 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:13 pm

I have seen a few posts on here by some of the more long standing members of this forum and they have said some of their clients have actually posted completely false information on nfatracker just to mess with people. They didn't state a reason for the people doing something like that but it just goes to show don't believe everything you read on the Internet lol. My personal experience has been 6 months from the pending date to get approval then about 2 weeks to get the stamp back. I guess overall I would say nfatracker is not a reliable source of information to base your wait times on because of the ability to make false entries into the database.

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ronin111
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by ronin111 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:20 pm

You have to look at the times for your examiner to get the most accurate information. The overall statistics won't help much.

The easiest way I've found to manipulate the data is to download the spreadsheet and use Excel to filter and sort. The results have always been pretty accurate for me.

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eastern_hunter
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by eastern_hunter » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:35 pm

I agree that comparison to one's examiner is best ... but you need to know your examiner. They seem to be moving some around. Two of my last three were not approved by the expected person.

Were I you and were now more than 6 months out, I'd call.

Slaine777
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Slaine777 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:37 pm

According to the wait time prediction I had bad luck (99%) with my 762SD. I am also having bad luck with my Spectre II. It said that should have been October or maybe November. The ATF says December.
On my 45 Osprey it went pending August 8th, 20% would have gotten their stamp and my approval is 16% November, 79% December, 3% January. The ATF disagrees and said I should expect Feburary. In my opinion the wait time prediction is worthless. I think anyone who expects a form 4 individual to go from pending to approved in 4 months right now has extremely unreasonable expectations.
If you wade through the reports at the bottom of the page for your individual examiner you might be able to get a general idea of dates your examiner is currently approving. I say might because there isn't a lot of information for some examiners. The last two suppressors Frushour has on the list show pending June 1st, approved October 4th (doubtful) and pending April 2nd, approved September 24th. Sometime between now and then he inherited Bowers forms from Missouri. There is no telling where Frushour is on his stack of forms now. I think it is reasonable to guess that he is in the pending in late May or early June forms.

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laxguy59
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by laxguy59 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:52 pm

NFA tracker said I was slow too. I was checked cashed 6-11 approved 11-18 with Shannon Siviero.

Better idea was when I would sort results by date approved and look at the check cashed date of the newest approvals and compare how close their check cashing was to mine.

Broken11B
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Broken11B » Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:01 am

Slaine777 wrote: I think anyone who expects a form 4 individual to go from pending to approved in 4 months right now has extremely unreasonable expectations.
.
The info from my last can:

Pending 8 March 12
Approved 31 July 12

Thats 4 months, 23 days, with a delay from a problem status.

I have another pending date of 9 August, so we'll see when that gets approved.

Slaine777
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Slaine777 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:46 pm

Broken11B wrote:
Slaine777 wrote: I think anyone who expects a form 4 individual to go from pending to approved in 4 months right now has extremely unreasonable expectations.
.
The info from my last can:

Pending 8 March 12
Approved 31 July 12

Thats 4 months, 23 days, with a delay from a problem status.

I have another pending date of 9 August, so we'll see when that gets approved.
I want your examiner.

Broken11B
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Broken11B » Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:34 am

Shannon Siviero. She's been quick (relatively) for a lot of people I know who are buying NFA... Move to SC or GA. :mrgreen:

I hope she meets or exceeds those dates I posted with my next one. Pending early August...fingers crossed I see it before Christmas.

Slaine777
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Slaine777 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:16 pm

Spectre II approved yesterday. Five months and eight days.
I have paperwork on one more can, pending August 8th.

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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Keaner » Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:10 pm

I hope this isn't digging up too dead of a thread, but I wanted to mention that I've changed the way the reporting works and updated the wait-time predictor to hopefully make the site more accurate.

The WaitTimePredictor now takes the examiner into account, so it should help give you a better idea of the timeframe.

garry
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by garry » Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:19 pm

Thank You for the nfa tracker page.

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laxguy59
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by laxguy59 » Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:38 pm

Keaner wrote:I hope this isn't digging up too dead of a thread, but I wanted to mention that I've changed the way the reporting works and updated the wait-time predictor to hopefully make the site more accurate.

The WaitTimePredictor now takes the examiner into account, so it should help give you a better idea of the timeframe.
Other than not having the average time and slope mapped out on the trend graph I like the up to date changes.

Everyone make sure to like NFATracker on facebook if you have one.

Keaner
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Re: accuracy of NFA TRACKER DOT COM?

Post by Keaner » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:09 am

laxguy59 wrote:
Keaner wrote:I hope this isn't digging up too dead of a thread, but I wanted to mention that I've changed the way the reporting works and updated the wait-time predictor to hopefully make the site more accurate.

The WaitTimePredictor now takes the examiner into account, so it should help give you a better idea of the timeframe.
Other than not having the average time and slope mapped out on the trend graph I like the up to date changes.

Everyone make sure to like NFATracker on facebook if you have one.

Thanks for the feedback! I've been playing around with the trend graph a bit, but those features are a little tough. The previous ones were done in Excel by other people and sent to me. I tried to do it with a graphing library, but it doesn't seem to support much in the way of features. I'm still looking into it!

Thanks for the mention of Facebook too! I realized it would be a good way to spread news of changes and answer questions publicly about the site. It isn't much of a page at the moment, but hopefully it'll become better with time.

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